Market Research Note Week of 13 July 2026.

Week in Review — 6-11 July 2026

FX. The US dollar traded softer for a second consecutive week, unwinding some of its June strength following a soft US June non-farm payrolls report at 57,000 versus consensus of 110,000. Sterling touched a 2026 high against the euro at 1.1676 on 2 July, sustained the pair around 1.166 through the week, and consolidated GBP/USD around 1.335. EUR/USD rebounded toward 1.145 as softer eurozone inflation (2.8% headline, 2.4% core) capped the euro's upside while dollar weakness supported it. USD/JPY tested the 162-163 area, keeping Japanese intervention risk elevated.

Precious metals. Gold traded in a $4,000-$4,205 range across the week. The metal recovered from an eight-month low of $3,944 in late June and consolidated around $4,100-$4,150 through mid-week before pulling back Friday on rising oil prices. Gold remains approximately 26% below its January all-time high of $5,598 but 50% higher than year-ago levels. Critical support has emerged at $3,960, tested three times in recent weeks.

Energy. Brent crude rose approximately 5% over the week to $75-$77 as renewed US strikes on Iranian facilities and the revocation of a 60-day waiver on Iranian oil sanctions increased supply concerns. The International Energy Agency warned that prolonged escalation could delay the expected rebuilding of global oil inventories and disrupt the anticipated market surplus for 2027. The UAE, which left OPEC in May, raised June crude output to a record 3.8 mb/d. Saudi Arabia set its August official selling price for Arab Light to Asia at $1.50 below the Oman/Dubai average — the largest monthly cut since Reuters records began in 2003.

Equities. US indices closed higher into the weekend, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.4% and the Nasdaq 100 adding 0.3% Friday ahead of Q2 earnings season. The SK Hynix American depositary receipt listing raised $26.5 billion in the largest-ever US listing by a foreign company, with the stock up 12.8% on debut. European indices were mixed across the week: DAX +0.6%, CAC 40 +0.6%, FTSE 100 slightly softer. Japan's Nikkei 225 closed the week at 67,743.

FX Focus

US Dollar

The Federal Reserve held its target range at 3.50%–3.75% on 17 June 2026 in Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Chair. The updated Summary of Economic Projections turned hawkish, with the median policymaker now expecting rates to end 2026 higher than today. Markets initially priced roughly one 25bp hike by October. The soft June NFP print and a less hawkish tone from Chair Warsh at the ECB's Sintra forum on 1 July then prompted a repricing, with September hike odds cited as falling from approximately 67% to 50% following the payrolls data. Deutsche Bank has flagged that gold could fall to $3,800 if the Federal Reserve delivers three to four rate hikes, though this remains a tail-risk scenario in their published research. MUFG Research forecasts the Fed on hold until late 2026, followed by two rate cuts in 2027 to reach a neutral rate of approximately 3.00%.

Euro

The European Central Bank raised the deposit rate by 25bps to 2.25% at its June meeting — the first hike since September 2023. President Lagarde struck a notably calmer tone at Sintra on 1 July, noting that risks to inflation and growth had diminished following the drop in crude prices after the interim US-Iran ceasefire. Markets have subsequently trimmed the odds of a third ECB hike, though ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane's comments on the neutral rate drifting higher have kept the window for a further hike open. Eurozone headline inflation cooled to 2.8% in June from 3.2% in May, with core easing to 2.4%. National Bank of Canada's Foreign Exchange research maintains a year-end EUR/USD target of 1.18, with the euro's path viewed primarily as a dollar story rather than one of standout euro strength.

British Pound

The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% on 18 June in a 7-2 vote, with two members preferring a hike. UK headline CPI at 2.8% sits below US inflation, while services inflation near 3.7% keeps the Monetary Policy Committee cautious about cutting. The gap between UK and eurozone rates is the anchor supporting GBP/EUR near the top of its 2026 band. GBP/USD's next test is Wednesday's FOMC minutes and Monday's US ISM Services data.

Japanese Yen

The yen weakened from 159.15 to 162.53 versus the dollar in June. The 162-163 area remains the sensitivity zone where Japanese intervention risk is regarded by market participants as most acute. Prime Minister Takaichi's investment agenda supports Japan's medium-term growth profile but raises questions around funding and JGB supply, meaning the near-term fiscal impulse is not straightforwardly yen positive. MUFG Research's published forecast has USD/JPY ending 2026 around 158, with a sustained yen recovery likely requiring lower US yields or a more forceful Bank of Japan. The BoJ meets 30-31 July and its Outlook Report on 31 July will be the material catalyst for the yen through the balance of the summer.

Precious Metals

Gold's structural picture through mid-2026 reflects a specific interplay: safe-haven demand from Middle East tensions supporting the metal, hawkish Federal Reserve policy expectations capping the upside, and structural central bank buying providing a floor. China increased its gold reserves for a 20th consecutive month. OCBC Bank expects gold prices to decline through the end of 2026 due to rising Treasury yields and dollar strength, though analysts broadly maintain that gold's long-term trend remains upward.

Market participants are watching the following technical zones as the reference points for near-term positioning discussion:

• Support levels: $3,960 (critical, tested three times), $3,800, $3,600.
• Resistance levels: $4,205 (near-term), $4,300 (approximating the 50-day moving average), $4,500 (psychological).

Silver traded around $57 by the end of the week. Palladium and platinum remain sensitive to auto-sector demand — the EU-US 15% trade deal caps EU autos, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors at 15%, replacing what would have been Section 232 tariffs, which may support auto sector demand relative to earlier expectations.

Energy Markets

The Brent crude picture is dominated by the US-Iran situation. The 18 June memorandum of understanding to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz initially drove prices sharply lower — Brent averaged $85 per barrel in June, down $22 per barrel from May. Spot Brent dropped below $70 per barrel on 1 July. The picture reversed sharply on 7-8 July after US strikes on Iranian facilities and the revocation of the 60-day waiver on Iranian oil sanctions (effective 17 July 2026). Brent recovered to $75-$77 across the week.

The US Energy Information Administration's July 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts Brent to average $70 per barrel in Q4 2026 and $65 per barrel in 2027 — $19 and $15 per barrel lower respectively than the June forecast — assuming continued de-escalation. The IEA has warned that renewed exchanges of fire this week highlight the risks of not reaching a lasting peace agreement, which is a "must for the normalisation in oil markets".

Structural signals from producers being watched by market participants:

• The UAE's record June output of 3.8 mb/d following its departure from OPEC in May.
• Saudi Arabia's August OSP cut — the largest since 2003 records began.
• Iraq reportedly threatening to leave OPEC if a higher production quota is not agreed.
• The Iranian export sanctions waiver expiring 17 July 2026.

The EIA estimates global oil inventories fell by an average of 5.1 mb/d in Q2 2026, will fall by another 2.2 mb/d in Q3 2026, then build by 2.7 mb/d in Q4 2026 and 5.0 mb/d in 2027 — assuming a return to pre-conflict conditions.

Equity Indices

US equities enter Q2 earnings season with mixed positioning. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have benefited from technology sector strength — the SK Hynix listing, Meta's positive research note on its AI compute business, and continued semiconductor sector rotation. Q2 earnings begin Tuesday 14 July with JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs before the open. Bank earnings will provide market participants with a read-through on institutional trading and capital markets revenue — a proxy for risk appetite through Q2, a quarter defined by rate uncertainty, elevated inflation, and the Middle East conflict.

European indices have been supported by the EU-US trade deal certainty (a 15% all-inclusive ceiling replacing prior tariff uncertainty) and by softer eurozone inflation reducing pressure on the ECB. However, EU autos, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductor exports remain capped at 15%, and EU steel and aluminium remain at 50%. The Section 122 global tariff (10%) is scheduled to expire on 24 July 2026 unless Congress extends it — a material event risk for equities globally.

The Nikkei 225 has been supported by yen weakness and by heavyweight technology and semiconductor exposure. Prime Minister Takaichi's investment agenda supports Japan's medium-term growth profile but raises questions about JGB supply, keeping fiscal-policy uncertainty a persistent factor for the yen and Japanese equities together.

Political and Policy Landscape

Three developments are shaping cross-asset positioning this month.

EU-US trade deal. Effective 1 July 2026, EU goods pay a 15% all-inclusive ceiling that replaces Section 122 for the bloc. Autos, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors are capped at 15% in lieu of Section 232 tariffs. Steel and aluminium remain at 50%. The European Council formally adopted enabling regulations on 25 June.

USMCA non-renewal. The Trump administration announced it will not renew the USMCA in its current form, following a virtual meeting with Canada and Mexico trade leaders. The deal enters annual reviews for up to 10 years, with expiration in July 2036 if no new agreement is reached. USTR officials have indicated the US would continue bilateral talks with Canada and Mexico to resolve specific issues. The framework is sensitive for CAD and MXN.

Digital services tax threat. President Trump has threatened a 100% tariff on any country implementing a digital services tax affecting US companies, stating in a Truth Social post that this would "supersede Trade Deals made with the Country, whether implemented, signed, or not".

Section 301 investigation against Germany. The USTR launched an investigation on 18 June 2026 into whether persistent underpayment for innovative pharmaceutical products by Germany is unreasonable or discriminatory.

Court challenge to the Section 122 tariff. The Court of International Trade ruled the Section 122 tariff unlawful on 7 May 2026. The Federal Circuit granted a stay on 11 June pending appeal, meaning CBP continues to collect the tariff while the appeal proceeds. If the appeal fails, this could materially reshape US tariff policy, with unpredictable market implications.

Midterms. November 2026 elections remain a background factor. Political analysts have noted that the administration has reason to avoid market-disruptive escalation before November, but that pressure for quick foreign-policy wins could accelerate action on Cuba and Europe.

Two-Week Calendar — 13-26 July 2026

Coverage horizon: 13-26 July 2026. All times US Eastern.

Date	Time ET	Event
Mon 13 Jul	—	Japan PPI · Positioning ahead of US CPI
Tue 14 Jul	08:30	US June CPI · May was +4.2% YoY headline, +2.9% core
Tue 14 Jul	10:00	Fed Chair Warsh testimony · House Financial Services
Tue 14 Jul	Pre-open	JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs Q2 earnings
Wed 15 Jul	08:30	US June PPI
Wed 15 Jul	10:00	Fed Chair Warsh testimony · Senate Banking
Wed 15 Jul	16:15	Fed Beige Book (last qualitative input before FOMC)
Thu 16 Jul	08:30	Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing · Initial jobless claims
Fri 17 Jul	—	Iranian oil sanctions waiver expires (12:01 EDT)
Fri 17 Jul	10:00	University of Michigan Inflation Expectations
Mon 20 Jul	—	BoJ core CPI · Positioning ahead of PMI flash
Wed 23 Jul	—	Flash Manufacturing / Services PMI · US, EU, UK
Thu 24 Jul	—	Section 122 global tariff scheduled expiry · ECB monetary policy meeting
Mon 27 Jul	—	Existing home sales · Position squaring ahead of FOMC
Tue-Wed 28-29 Jul	14:00 / 14:30 (Wed)	FOMC decision and Chair Warsh press conference · No SEP this meeting
Wed 29 Jul	—	Australian CPI (RBA meets 11-12 Aug)
Thu 30 Jul	08:30	US Q2 GDP advance · June PCE · BoJ policy meeting (Tokyo)
Fri 31 Jul	—	BoJ Outlook Report · July PMI final prints

What this means for the trader

Two weeks like these — where four significant US data prints (CPI, PPI, Beige Book, FOMC), two geopolitical catalysts (the Iranian sanctions waiver expiry and the Section 122 tariff sunset), one central bank meeting (BoJ), and the opening of Q2 bank earnings all sit inside the same fifteen-session window — are structurally different from a consolidation month. They ask a different set of risk-management questions of every trader operating an account. The Capital Mint Markets rulebook was designed with exactly this shape of environment in mind, and it is worth setting out how the specific rules interact with the calendar ahead.

Position sizing and single-idea exposure. The environment ahead is one in which a single event can move several correlated symbols at once — a hotter CPI print can move DXY, gold, US equity futures, and yield-sensitive FX crosses within the same minute. Capital Mint Markets caps aggregate exposure to a single trade idea at 50% of starting balance on funded accounts specifically for this shape of environment. Traders should be aware of the cap and factor it into how positions across correlated instruments are built during the fortnight ahead.

The two-strike floating loss system. Capital Mint Markets is one of the few firms in the sector that operates a two-strike floating loss architecture rather than a one-strike design. If aggregate open losses on an account touch 1% (Mint Vault) or 2% (Mint Sprint, Mint Precision, Mint Ascend) during a bad five-minute window around a data release, all open positions close automatically and the account remains active. This is a materially different design from the industry default, and it is worth understanding in a fortnight where a single mistimed print could otherwise be a terminal event on a rival firm's rulebook. The full mechanic is set out in our earlier piece on the two-strike floating loss system.

Stand-aside days and daily activity. The number of high-impact catalysts across the next fifteen sessions is unusually high — Tuesday 14 July around CPI, Wednesday 15 July around PPI and the Beige Book, Thursday 17 July around the Iranian waiver expiry, Thursday 24 July around Section 122 and the ECB, Tuesday-Wednesday 28-29 July around FOMC. Capital Mint Markets does not require daily activity or impose minimum trade counts on funded accounts. Traders can elect not to trade on days where the risk-reward looks asymmetric without any implication for the account's status. Standing aside is a legitimate positioning decision, not a rule violation.

News-trading policy. Capital Mint Markets does not impose blanket news-trading restrictions. Traders who have an edge around data prints can hold positions through releases; traders who do not can stand aside. Both approaches are supported by the rulebook. The specific choice belongs to each trader on each account, informed by their own edge and their own risk tolerance.

Closing framing. None of the above is a trade recommendation, and nothing in this note constitutes advice to enter, exit, or size any specific position. What it is intended to be is a framework for thinking about how the risk environment across the two weeks ahead interacts with the account rules Capital Mint Markets has published. The specific positioning decisions belong to each trader. The Research Desk will refresh this note in the following weekly instalment.